Monday, Dec. 30, 2019 production is a key element in the fundamentals of future trading and will be a little more important than inventory.

The recent situation in terms of output is that the steel mill will actually reduce production!

One, electric arc furnace partial area loses money, the output cannot go up

The scrap price has been high, the main reason is that the steel mill ahead of time to scrap this winter storage work done, and scrap acquisition and storage is expected to be a lot of artificial place, and will soon be the Spring Festival, during the Spring Festival should not receive scrap!

On December 26, 2019, the cost of the thread furnace factory is :3750 yuan/ton.

Sichuan ya 'an anshan iron and steel co., ltd. plans to suspend production on January 1, 2020, and resume production on February 2, affecting the total output of about 70,000 tons.

Ii. During the maintenance of the blast furnace enterprise

The planned amount of the 1st phase in the middle of the year 2020 is 10% off the thread (10% off in the previous phase), 4% off the wire and coil (10% off in the previous phase);

Phase 1-1 planned quantity of yongsteel, thread 5.5 fold (previous phase 5 fold), wire and coil 10 fold (previous phase 10 fold);

Shagang plans on thread volume in January 20% off (10% off last month).

In addition, zhongtian 1-1 phase, hangzhou thread 30% off (the first phase of 10% off).

In January, shagang zhongtian yong steel, thread output has declined.

At present, the price of industrial steel also line, hot metal to the active flow of industrial materials!

Third, the environmental protection limit production quietly

In fact, starting with the three major battles, we will continue to fight pollution prevention and control. We will keep to the same direction and continue to fight pollution with equal intensity. We will focus on targeted, scientific, and law-based efforts to combat pollution, and work for a sustained improvement in the quality of the ecological environment.

We should focus on protecting the blue sky, clear water and clean land, improve the relevant governance mechanisms, and do a good job in prevention and control at the source.

Now basically cure exceed and cure dirty all start from the source, and steel mill is this source.

Vehicles must enter the country 5, bad weather must reduce production, loading tonnage must be normal.

From north to south, a vigorous campaign for environmental protection has begun!

The factors that affect the output of steel mills are not necessarily profit, but also may be the weather.

December 30, 2019, hangzhou fine, the price of transit thread 3730 yuan/ton, transit disk screw 3820 yuan/ton, the weekend delivery of 68,000 tons, hangzhou thread inventory 299,000 tons.

At present, the price in hangzhou has stabilized after falling to 3650. There is still some capital for bottom hunting at 3650-3680, so the price will be bought up. In addition, the demand in hangzhou is still maintained, and there is no obvious decrease!

Thread for now I am partial many!

Black will not be empty, the current wave of winter storage market arrival, now just someone in the disk winter storage someone in spot winter storage, spot crash, stock risk decline, and black did not have a big fall and rise in the market, the contradiction between supply and demand is not very prominent, in a range of fluctuations!

In addition, futures, in fact, the thread of the futures down, in fact, is a new high, is currently a small step to the rising market, not up, up after long will stop surplus, short will suppress, but short to suppress is not very firm, short mainly!

I think from the technical point of view, the weekly line has stood on the MA60,3522, which means at the price of 3522, more empty!

Long risk also lies in the production, supply pressure objectively exists, the global crude steel production in November fell year on year, only China to maintain growth, the late steel export will face greater resistance, environmental protection implementation of differentiated policies, once the environmental protection is less than expected, then there will be a release of production!

Additional is not the impact of imported steel, also need bull attention!